A High-Stakes Diplomatic Standoff
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is walking a tightrope — balancing close ties with both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — while sticking to India’s declared neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But that delicate balance is under strain. Trump has grown impatient, demanding that India stop buying cheap Russian oil and warning of steep tariffs if Modi doesn’t fall in line.
On Monday, in a CNBC interview, Trump said he would “substantially” raise tariffs on Indian goods “within 24 hours” because New Delhi continues to purchase Russian crude. The warning follows his earlier announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian imports.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote:
“They’ve long sourced most of their military equipment from Russia and remain one of its biggest energy buyers — none of which is a good thing.”
Why India Refuses to Stop Buying Russian Oil
For Modi, the choice is driven by economic survival rather than politics. With over 1.4 billion people, India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer and is projected to surpass China by 2030.
Russia now supplies 36% of India’s crude imports, making it the nation’s biggest supplier. These purchases, often at steep discounts, have been crucial in keeping domestic fuel prices stable.
“India’s decision to buy Russian oil is purely commercial,” says Amitabh Singh of Jawaharlal Nehru University. “It’s about affordability and energy security.”
Why Alternative Sources Aren’t Easy
India relies on imports for 80% of its oil needs, but finding an alternative to Russian supplies is far from easy. After the Ukraine invasion in 2022, Europe cut off Russian oil, redirecting the flow to Asia.
Other sources like the Middle East and OPEC members can’t instantly fill the gap — and past US sanctions have already cut India off from Iran and Venezuela, both former major suppliers.
Before sanctions, India bought up to 480,000 barrels per day from Iran.The loss of that, along with Venezuela’s oil, has left India with even fewer options.
Global Price Shock Risks
India argues that continuing to buy Russian oil actually helps keep global oil prices lower by reducing competition for Middle Eastern supply. Cutting off Russian oil imports abruptly could drive prices up worldwide — including in the US.
Some of India’s imported Russian crude is refined and exported to Western countries, bypassing direct sanctions. In 2023, India emerged as the world’s second-biggest exporter of refined fuel, supplying the US,
UK, and European markets.
A Partnership Decades in the Making
India’s bond with Russia is not just about oil — it’s rooted in decades of strategic cooperation. During the Cold War, India aligned more closely with the Soviet Union after the U.S. began supporting Pakistan with military aid.
Even today, India remains the largest buyer of Russian arms, while also deepening defense ties with the US, France, and Israel.
Last year, Modi’s visit to Moscow, complete with Putin personally driving him around, underscored the enduring warmth between the two nations.
The Trump–Modi Rift
Once political allies who publicly praised each other, Trump and Modi now face friction. Trump has accused India of “propping up” Russia’s war in Ukraine, while New Delhi is irritated by what it sees as unfair targeting in trade disputes.
Professor Singh predicts that while trade talks will continue, India is unlikely to cave to Trump’s demands anytime soon. “Weaning off Russian oil can’t happen overnight,” he says. “It’s a long process.”