The political temperature in Bihar has reached a boiling point as the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan engage in a high-stakes tug-of-war over Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM legislators ahead of the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections.
With five seats in the Upper House of Parliament set to become vacant this April, the arithmetic of the Bihar Legislative Assembly has turned into a complex puzzle. In this numbers game, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which holds five crucial seats in the assembly, has emerged as the ultimate kingmaker. Both Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s camp and Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD are reportedly pulling out all the stops to secure Owaisi’s support, knowing that these five votes will decide the fate of the final seat.
Table of Contents
🏛️ The Empty Chairs: Why the March Elections are Critical
The notification for the Rajya Sabha polls is expected to be released in March, with the terms of five sitting members officially ending on April 9. The departing members represent a cross-section of Bihar’s political elite:
- Prem Chand Gupta (RJD): A veteran leader and close confidant of the Lalu Prasad family.
- Amarendra Dhari Singh (RJD): An influential businessman-turned-politician.
- Harivansh Narayan Singh (JD-U): Currently serving as the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha.
- Ramnath Thakur (JD-U): Son of the legendary Karpoori Thakur and a key face for the EBC outreach.
- Upendra Kushwaha (RLM): A vital ally of the NDA representing the Kushwaha community.
As these heavyweights prepare to vacate their seats, the scramble to replace them has intensified the rivalry between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc.
🔢 The Mathematical Battleground: 41 is the Magic Number 🤝
In the 243-member Bihar Assembly, the election for a Rajya Sabha seat follows a specific proportional representation formula. To secure an outright victory for a single seat, a candidate requires the first-preference votes of at least 41 MLAs.
The NDA’s Stronghold
The NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U), and other allies, currently boasts 202 MLAs. Based on the first-preference voting system:
- They have enough strength to comfortably win four seats ($41 \times 4 = 164$).
- After securing four seats, the NDA will be left with a surplus of 38 votes.
The Mahagathbandhan’s Struggle
On the other side of the aisle, the Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, and Left parties) holds a combined strength of 35 MLAs.
- They are short of the 41-vote mark by 6 votes.
- Without external support, the opposition risks failing to send even a single representative to the Rajya Sabha this term.
⚡ The Owaisi Factor: Why AIMIM is the Kingmaker 👑
This is where Asaduddin Owaisi’s party becomes the most hunted bride in Bihar politics. With 5 MLAs, the AIMIM holds the power to tilt the scales.
If the AIMIM sides with the Mahagathbandhan, the opposition’s tally rises to 40. With the potential addition of the lone BSP MLA, they reach 41—guaranteeing them one seat and denying the NDA a clean sweep.
Conversely, if the NDA manages to woo Owaisi or even ensure his abstention, their surplus of 38 votes, combined with a few independent or smaller party nods, could allow them to capture the fifth seat through second-preference voting.
“In a scenario where every single vote counts, the AIMIM is no longer a fringe player. They are the axis around which the fifth seat revolves,” says a senior political analyst based in Patna.
🕵️ Inside the Secret Negotiations: “Dore Dalna” (Casting the Net)
Sources close to the development suggest that emissaries from both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav have already initiated “backdoor’ talks with AIMIM’s Bihar leadership.
For Tejashwi Yadav, securing Owaisi’s support is a matter of prestige. After the RJD previously absorbed four of AIMIM’s five MLAs in 2022, relations between the two parties have been frosty. However, in politics, there are no permanent enemies. Tejashwi knows that if he fails to win a Rajya Sabha seat, it will be viewed as a significant tactical failure for the INDIA bloc.
For Nitish Kumar, a 5-0 sweep for the NDA would be a massive morale booster ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections. It would signal total dominance over the state’s legislative machinery.
🗣️ What is AIMIM’s Official Stand?
Despite the intense lobbying, the AIMIM leadership is playing its cards close to its chest. Akhtarul Iman, the AIMIM Bihar State President and the face of the party in Seemanchal, remains non-committal.
“It is premature to talk about our stance right now. We are observing the political climate. When the time is right, our central leadership and the legislative party will take a collective decision that benefits our constituency,” Iman stated in a recent press interaction.
While he neither confirmed nor denied contact from the NDA or RJD, the silence from Hyderabad (Owaisi’s headquarters) suggests that a high-value political bargain may be in the works.
📈 Analysis: The Implications of the Fifth Seat
The battle for the fifth seat is not just about a chair in Delhi; it is about the narrative of Bihar politics moving into 2026.
- NDA Hegemony: If the NDA wins all 5 seats, it proves that Nitish Kumar’s return to the NDA fold has created an invincible arithmetic that even the RJD’s “MY” (Muslim-Yadav) equation cannot break.
- RJD’s Survival: For the Mahagathbandhan, winning one seat is a survival necessity. It keeps their cadre motivated and ensures they have a voice in the Upper House.
- Owaisi’s Leverage: For AIMIM, this is an opportunity to prove they are not “vote cutters” but “power brokers.” They may demand specific legislative concessions or developmental promises for the Seemanchal region in exchange for their votes.
🗳️ Beyond Rajya Sabha: The MLC Elections Shadow
Adding another layer of complexity to the March madness is the upcoming election for two Bihar Legislative Council (MLC) seats.
- Vacancies: Two seats became vacant after BJP’s Mangal Pandey and JD(U)’s Radhacharan Shah were elected to the Assembly.
- Deputy CM’s Tenure: Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary’s MLC term is also nearing its end (June 28), though he has already secured an Assembly seat.
The proximity of the MLC and Rajya Sabha elections means that parties might try to “bundle” deals. A party might offer support in the Rajya Sabha in exchange for a seat in the Legislative Council.
📋 Detailed Strength of the Bihar Assembly (Current)
| Party / Alliance | Number of MLAs |
| NDA (BJP, JD-U, HAM, RLM) | 202 |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left) | 35 |
| AIMIM | 05 |
| BSP | 01 |
| IIP / Independent | 01 |
| Total | 243 |
🏁 Conclusion: A High-Stakes Chess Game
The month of March will undoubtedly be one of the most significant periods in recent Bihar political history. The Rajya Sabha elections are more than just a procedural vote; they are a litmus test for the strength of the NDA and the resilience of the Mahagathbandhan.
As Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav sharpen their strategies, all eyes remain on Asaduddin Owaisi. Will he side with the “Secular” front despite past betrayals, or will he allow the NDA to sail through to a historic clean sweep? One thing is certain: in the dusty corridors of Patna, the “Kingmaker” has finally arrived.
❓ Suggested FAQs
Q1: How many Rajya Sabha seats are going to polls in Bihar?
A: Five Rajya Sabha seats are going to polls as the terms of the current members expire on April 9, 2026.
Q2: Who are the prominent leaders retiring from the Rajya Sabha in Bihar?
A: Key leaders include RJD’s Prem Chand Gupta, JD(U)’s Harivansh Narayan Singh, and RLM’s Upendra Kushwaha.
Q3: Why is AIMIM considered the kingmaker in this election?
A: With 5 MLAs, AIMIM holds the balance of power. Their votes are necessary for the Mahagathbandhan to win even one seat, or for the NDA to potentially sweep all five.
Q4: How many votes are needed to win one Rajya Sabha seat in Bihar?
A: A candidate requires a minimum of 41 first-preference votes from the MLAs of the Bihar Legislative Assembly.
Q5: When will the Rajya Sabha elections take place?
A: While the terms end in April, the official election schedule is expected to be announced by the Election Commission in March.
External Source: Patrika Report
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