Introduction
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, held on the sidelines of the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, has drawn significant global attention. This diplomatic engagement highlights the evolving complexities in India-China relations, the growing importance of multilateral forums, and the shifting dynamics of global geopolitics. Beyond bilateral tensions, the discussions also have implications for platforms like BRICS and the Russia-India-China (RIC) dialogue.
1. Background and Context
SCO Summit: A Strategic Platform
The meeting took place just ahead of the SCO Summit, a prominent Eurasian political, economic, and security forum that brings together China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations. The SCO is increasingly seen as an alternative platform for regional cooperation, particularly in security, counter-terrorism, and connectivity projects.
State of India-China Relations
India-China relations have remained at one of their lowest points since the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. Despite multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks aimed at reducing border tensions, a complete normalization of ties has not been achieved. In such a context, high-level interactions like this carry extraordinary importance, not only for bilateral ties but also for regional and global stability.
2. Modi–Wang Yi Meeting: Key Takeaways
Symbolic Importance
The fact that the meeting took place within a multilateral setting like the SCO is itself notable. It reduces the direct bilateral pressure and allows both sides to engage in a more neutral, constructive environment.
Potential Agenda Points
- Border Peace and Confidence-Building: Restoring peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was likely a top priority. Discussions on disengagement, military de-escalation, and trust-building were expected to dominate.
- Multilateral Cooperation: The leaders may have explored convergences on SCO agendas, including counter-terrorism, connectivity, trade, and cultural exchanges.
- Global Issues: The Ukraine war, global energy crisis, economic slowdown, and supply chain disruptions were likely discussed.
- Upcoming BRICS Summit: With China chairing BRICS in 2024, short exchanges on strengthening cooperation within the grouping may have taken place.
3. PM Modi’s Diplomatic Message
After the meeting, PM Modi emphasized the idea of “continuous progress” in his social media message. This carefully crafted phrase holds multiple layers of meaning:
- Signal of Positivity: It reassures both domestic and international audiences that dialogue channels remain open.
- Realistic Tone: The choice of words avoids exaggerated claims of breakthroughs, reflecting instead a cautious but steady approach.
- Domestic Messaging: It signals to Indian citizens that the government is actively addressing sensitive border issues without compromising national interest.
4. RIC (Russia-India-China) Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges
The SCO Summit, attended by leaders of India, Russia, and China, naturally revives interest in the RIC framework. Though not a formal alliance, RIC has been envisioned as a trilateral platform to promote stability and multipolarity in global affairs.
Areas of Convergence
- Multipolar World Order: All three countries share an interest in reducing Western dominance, particularly U.S. hegemony, in global governance structures.
- Economic Cooperation: Opportunities exist in trade, investment, and infrastructure development.
- Regional Security: Counter-terrorism and tackling extremism remain shared concerns.
Key Challenges
- India-China Disputes: Ongoing border tensions and China’s close ties with Pakistan fuel distrust.
- Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s growing isolation has pushed it closer to China, complicating India’s balancing act. While India continues to buy Russian oil, it also supports Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- India-U.S. Relations: India has deepened its ties with the U.S. and partners through the QUAD framework, seen as a counterbalance to China’s regional influence. This limits the scope of RIC.
- Diverging Interests: On issues like the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific strategy, and Pakistan, the three nations remain far from alignment.
5. Geopolitical Balancing and Strategic Autonomy
For India, engagement in SCO, BRICS, and RIC is part of its broader strategy of strategic autonomy. By participating in these forums, India strengthens its voice on global platforms without compromising its partnerships with the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Europe. However, balancing between Western powers and rivals like China and Russia remains an ongoing challenge.
6. Conclusion
The Modi–Wang Yi meeting represents a cautious but necessary step in stabilizing strained India-China ties. While the phrase “continuous progress” signals optimism, it reflects a gradual process rather than a major breakthrough. The SCO and RIC platforms provide India with avenues to engage multiple powers simultaneously, yet their effectiveness is limited by structural challenges.
For now, RIC seems less likely to evolve into a robust alliance and more likely to remain a dialogue platform. Its future will depend not only on India-China border resolution but also on shifting U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China dynamics. In this complex web of global geopolitics, India’s priority will remain protecting its national interest while leveraging multilateralism to strengthen its global role.